The Irrationality of the Lottery
The lottery is a game in which numbers are drawn for prizes. It was first recorded in the Low Countries in the 15th century, and town records from Ghent, Utrecht, and Bruges indicate that it has long been a popular way to raise funds for local projects, including wall building and fortifications.
Buying lottery tickets is a rational choice for a given individual only when the expected utility of monetary and non-monetary rewards exceeds the disutility of a monetary loss. But the irrational beliefs about luck and probability that are embedded in the lottery’s culture of advertising and promotion have distorted people’s ability to calculate this expected utility, and the resulting irrationality makes lotteries especially popular.
When a lottery jackpot rises, people buy more tickets, and the chances of winning are diluted. If there is no winner in a drawing, the prize rolls over to the next draw, and the odds of winning become even more remote. Thus, even a modest increase in jackpot size can generate a huge avalanche of ticket purchases.
Lotteries operate on an inextricable human desire to dream big and to believe that their luck is about to change. But these beliefs are distorted by the irrationalities that come from a misunderstanding of how rare it is to win, and by the fact that most people can’t count or won’t bother to learn the odds.
State lotteries typically operate as a form of government-sponsored gambling. They establish a monopoly on the sale of lottery tickets; hire a public agency or corporation to run the operation (as opposed to licensing private firms in return for a share of the profits); and begin operations with a small number of relatively simple games. Over time, they are subject to constant pressure for additional revenues, and they progressively expand the number and variety of games on offer.
Studies of lottery participation have shown that most players come from middle-income neighborhoods, with significantly fewer proportionally from high-income or lower-income areas. But those who play daily numbers games and scratch tickets are disproportionately drawn from lower-income neighborhoods.
In addition, the fact that lotteries are subsidized by public funds gives them the appearance of providing a means for poorer families to climb the socioeconomic ladder. As a result, they tend to be more popular in the poorest neighborhoods. While lottery critics argue that the lottery has exacerbated inequality and has contributed to declining school funding, others suggest that lottery revenue can help to supplement general funds for programs such as education. But critics say that earmarking lottery proceeds for a particular program simply allows the legislature to reduce by an equal amount the appropriations it would have otherwise allotted to the program from its general fund. The resulting discretionary funds are then available to the state for other purposes. This practice has generated a great deal of controversy and debate. Nevertheless, it is unlikely that state lotteries will disappear soon. Many state governments have successfully used the lottery to raise money for schools, roads, and other infrastructure projects.